Boomer Bust?

[NursingDaBlues]

I’m 65. Born pretty close to the middle of what’s considered the Baby Boomer Generation. Maturing nicely, if I do say so myself. And contrary to what my wife says, I do notice things.

I’m noticing that there are far fewer antique dealers than there were ten years ago.
I’m noticing that, at least in Colorado, thirty- and forty-year olds, are scraping really nice older homes and building new ones in their place.
I’m noticing that pre-war Martin guitars are taking longer and longer to sell and at lower and lower prices.
I’m noticing that pre-war Gibsons (including LL mandolins and conversion banjos) are similarly not selling as quickly or with the premium price they once commanded.
I’m noticing that increasingly more people are lauding the merits of boutique shop instruments over the classics.

And I really took notice when a good friend who is also an acoustic instrument retailer said “the folks who would have bought [the pre-war Martins and Gibsons] are now on fixed incomes. And most of the Millennials and Gen Xers either want new or inexpensive.”

Is this true?

My 39 year-old son and his wife have made it clear that they really don’t want to inherit any of our “stuff,” including our instruments; instead they’d prefer to help us “downsize.”
Similarly, during a holiday gathering of families on our block, some 30- to 40-somethings were all nodding assent when one young couple voiced hating to disappoint her mother but they just didn’t want the in-the-family-for-generations piece of furniture; “how can people be so sentimental over antiques.”
Regarding older instruments, some of the sub-45 adults who participate in a neighborhood jam session have commented that they just don’t see any rationale in paying high prices for “used gear” regardless of the brand or era when they can get something new that’s “just as good” for a lot less money.

Is the desire for antiques and vintage instruments driven by sentimentality that’s only found in people of my generation? So were the Boomers the ones driving the demand and high prices for vintage instruments with “the sound?” I realize that many professionals will usually want the best instrument that they can find; but even now that may not always mean a pre-war anything. I see more and more pros sporting boutique-crafted instruments. So is the aging of the Boomer population a harbinger of the demise of the Golden Age of instruments?

I hope I’m over-generalizing and reading too much into the comments of a few. But I don’t know. And even though I ask the question, I’m almost afraid of the answer.

[SincereCorgi]

And I really took notice when a good friend who is also an acoustic instrument retailer said “the folks who would have bought [the pre-war Martins and Gibsons] are now on fixed incomes. And most of the Millennials and Gen Xers either want new or inexpensive.”

I don't want to turn this into a politics thread, but around here those sorts of vintage instruments are still extremely expensive and most Millenials/Gen X who aren't rich from the tech industry don't have the money to buy a pre-war Martin. I see a lot of nicer Regals and Kalamazoo instruments getting attention since they're still in the price range of the sort of people who like to play music seriously. I don't think sentimentality figures into so much as economic factors.

[Lowlands Blue]

?

My 39 year-old son and his wife have made it clear that they really don’t want to inherit any of our “stuff,” including our instruments;

I'd be open to adoption

[Mark Wilson]

I think also there's a talented builders boom atm. And the pool of awesome playing and sounding instruments is no longer soley defined by the finite few that were built pre ww2.

[Tobin]

I think you're over-generalizing to some extent. But some of what you're saying is indeed accurate.

I'm a Gen-Xer that will turn 43 in a few months. But I love antiques and family heirlooms. I have antique instruments, a house full of antiques (some of which have been in my family for 6 generations), and the house itself is old (1930). I collect vintage and antique firearms, up through the Cold War. Heck, my wife is an antique dealer. Maybe I'm just an exception, but I would rather have things with history and character than a brand-new cheap hunk of soulless junk. And judging by my wife's business, antiques are doing rather well right now. More on that in a second.

My twin brother, on the other hand, is the complete opposite. He sounds like your son. When my parents died, the only things he wanted were the functional/useful items like tools. He didn't want to junk up his life with sentimental garbage. And my younger brother is only mildly interested in sentimental items. He doesn't really like antiques just for the sake of antiques. So I sort of lucked out, being the only surviving son who actually wanted all my family's antiques.

I get regular earfuls from my wife on the status of the antiques market. It comes in waves, and follows trends. It is true that antiques are seen as frivolous by a lot of people, especially since the Great Recession. People started to focus more on saving money, which hurt antique dealers quite a bit. And while it has recovered to some degree, there are a lot of people who went out of business in that time period. So I wouldn't necessarily say that the decline in antiques is all about changing mindsets of younger generations. Part of it was purely economic. Older folks sold off their worldly possessions when their retirement portfolios took such huge hits, which saturated the market and depressed prices.

What we have noticed is that the younger folks who are buying antiques are following trends of decorating and style from magazines and TV. A lot of times, they want antique items so that they can "repurpose" them into something kitchy or trendy. And of course there are some items that just won't sell to anyone anymore. Nobody wants them. Being an antique dealer means staying on top of the trends and knowing what's hot, as well as what's not. The market is always in flux.

[Lowlands Blue]

edit: meant to quote sincerecorgi.

That's what I was going to say as well. I'd love nothing more than to have a boutique or top of the line instrument, but the reality is that even with saving and scraping together what I can find, it would take me ages to be able to afford it. The plan is to hone my playing skills on something affordable but with a descent sound and build, and then hopefully be able to afford something nicer later on in life (or getting adopted by someone with a nice instrument collection, hahaha).

[doublestoptremolo]

Another factor is that these days you can get an instrument that'll get you 90% "there" for under $1,000, due to the increased quality of imports. The Recording King RK-35 banjo, the KM-900 mandolin, Blueridge BR-160 guitar, etc. It's not like the early 70s where your choices were more stark.

[dhergert]

My wife and I are in roughly the same age group as you. We have two sons in their mid-20s. Of course we love and are very proud of them both. One son is very interested in music and probably would be happy to inherit whatever instruments we can pass on to him. The other son isn't so interested at least at this time...

And that's fine. The point is, it's their lives and they get to determine what is important to them.

If we live long enough to see a time when we can't use our instruments or for that matter anything else in our house, we'll indicate so to our kids. We'll let them know that these things are available, and if they want them they need to take ownership, otherwise we'll sell them, and we'll probably set a date after which everything goes. And if we don't live that long, it will be up to them to keep or dispose of those things.

Just like our parents before us, we have grown up and lived in a different time and with a different connection to history. We appreciate some things more because of that. When our kids are our age they'll probably have this same discussion with their peers, about their kids.

Ironically, my mother is 93 now and she speaks often of what we're going to do with the things in her house after she's gone. None of us, her three sons, really have any interest in those things at this time. We just want to see her enjoy them while she can. Who knows, maybe things will change when she's gone.

[doublestoptremolo]

I don't want to turn this into a politics thread, but around here those sorts of vintage instruments are still extremely expensive and most Millenials/Gen X who aren't rich from the tech industry don't have the money to buy a pre-war Martin.

To that point, this is from Happy Traum's book "Bluegrass Guitar" (Oak, 1974): "Pre-war Martins are reputed to have been made with more care, better wood, and have the time to age and mellow through the years. A good 40-year-old Dreadnaught can fetch as much as $2,500 these days."

$2,500 in 1974 is $12,300 in 2017. I don't think you can come across a prewar dreadnaught for anywhere near that these days.

[T.D.Nydn]

I've heard quite a few times from the younger kids," I don't want that old smelly furniture" .

[Beanzy]

Nostalgia sure aint what it used to be.

I only buy stuff that has a function & can't abide old furniture that's not going to be useful or cost effective over a lifetime of use. We inherited a load of stuff from my father in law, I'd rather have the space back than his stuff filling up what were nice spaces in our 200 year old barn.

Knickknacks and ornaments give me the pip too. When my old boy pops his clogs I'm going to refuse anything except old family snapshots from when we were growing up. The problem is my mum had an obsession with buying junk like Lladro ornaments, painted plates and tat of all sorts, so the old place is loaded with pointless chaff. It's like a bad taste show-house.

[Jeff Mando]

Reminds me of an atypical episode of "Hoarders." Husband and wife and were fighting over her clutter to the point of wanting to divorce, they called in the specialists, removed the "trash", then found they had been living off of his income and she had spent hers on Barbie dolls for 40 years -- she had boxes and boxes of them on shelves, in storage, on display, etc., all brand new and never opened, they brought in an appraiser, turns out she was sitting on a half a million dollars worth of Barbies! She kept a few of her favorites to display, and then sold the bulk of them. After discovering this information, the husband decided to give her another chance..........

[Mandoplumb]

Nursingdablues if you're 65 and been playing all your life you know the market is flooded now when it was starved 45 years ago. I'm 62 and when I was twenty you couldn't buy a new mandolin that was any count. This was Gibsons " great " 70's mandolins. So if you could afford the price of vintage instruments you bought one if you couldn't you played the best junk you could find. That is just not true any longer. If you want vintage you will pay more, taking into consideration inflation, than then, but you can buy a player for much less that sound wise approaches the vintage. Vintage has fell price in this last deep recession but tell me something that hasn't.

[allenhopkins]

We may be the first civilization in history dealing with problems of eating too much food, and owning too many goods.

As a "pre-booomer" (b. 1943), I find myself to some extent following my Depression-influenced parents by accumulating and perhaps over-valuing material objects; owning 75± instruments is a evidence of that. My sons, 39 and 35 years old, show interest in some of the stuff my wife and I have gathered over the years, but not the veneration for furniture etc. that "came down through the family" that we have.

As far as instruments are concerned, the availability of moderately-priced, good quality imported guitars, mandolins, banjos etc has given younger musicians many more options than I had at the same age. And I also notice some diminution of interest in playing, which I partially attribute to the attraction of computer-based means of entertainment and self-expression.

Still, my one child lives in a Cambridge MA house built in the 1840's. Not everyone is exclusively attracted to the newest and shiniest. And, after all, the reason for acquiring "vintage" instruments, IMHO, is to play and enjoy them for their quality and provenance, not to worry about their projected market value.

[Folkmusician.com]

Is this true?

As a generalization, yes.

Antiques do not have the widespread desirability hat they did in the past. I am not 100% sure that is the case with instruments, but I believe one of the biggest factors is the current quality:

Another factor is that these days you can get an instrument that'll get you 90% "there" for under $1,000, due to the increased quality of imports. The Recording King RK-35 banjo, the KM-900 mandolin, Blueridge BR-160 guitar, etc. It's not like the early 70s where your choices were more stark.

The huge improvement in quality at the lower price points is hurting the industry. This is happening across the board. If you needed to spend $5000+ on a nice instrument, then spending significantly more for something that is also collectible and may go up in value makes some sense. But when a KM-150 is good enough to go on stage with (for most people), it gets much harder to spend tens of thousands, even if you can afford it. It is even more so with guitars.

[MikeZito]

I am willing to guess that (for the most part) a desirable antique for the average person would simply be something that they grew up with - an item that brings back memories for them . . . hence the collectibility of different things with each generation. For example - as a record collector, 15 or 20 years ago Elvis and Beatles records were commonly sought after in used record stores - nowadays, the younger generation might be looking for Led Zeppelin, Queen or 1970's British punk . . . you would have a hard time giving away an average Elvis 45.

As far as musical instruments go - I am sure that many of us who started playing before the 1980's can remember when most foreign-made instruments were only slightly better than utter garbage, whereas nowadays there are many foreign makers who produce instruments of very good quality that sell for a fraction of what it costs to buy an instrument by well-known American manufacturers. For a player who doesn't have the financial luxury to buy a $4,000 'master model' or a $10,000 vintage classic, they can now generally find a very serviceable foreign instrument for a small fraction of that cost - whereas back in the 1970's it was almost literally feast of famine . . . either you bought the good stuff, or the garbage - there was very little in-between.

Another thing to briefly consider - how often do you hear younger players talk about 'tone' in their instruments . . . what I hear more often is that the instrument has a good 'vibe' to it. Maybe I'm old, but are they one-in-the same thing? My 25 year old son has a much different idea of what constitutes good playability and tone than I do - hence the instrument preference of his generation to what I would buy.

[FLATROCK HILL]

I see a lot of the same things NursingDabBlues has mentioned. The irony I notice though is that the same youngsters who don't seem to be interested in real antiques are spending their money on new stuff that looks old. My nephew sells 'Steampunk' type items and the 20-somethings eat that stuff up.

[Charlie Bernstein]

Generational? I doubt it. I'm 65, too, and I don't get very sentimental about inanimate objects.

What do people buy? They buy what's familiar and what they can afford. To me, folk (excuse me, acoustic) guitars with cutaways and onboard electronics aren't as familiar as good old Gibsons, Martins, and Guilds, and I just don't like them. But to a millenial they are familiar - and more affordable than a pre-war Martin. So they do like them.

Nothing strange or alarming about that.

And a lot of shops large and small are making great guitars. This is American lutherie's golden age. We can't blame mando and guitar lovers for wanting one, can we? (Or for leaving the good old stuff for those of us who appreciate it!)

And by the way, my part of the world (central Maine) is crawling with antique shops and dealers, with no sign of abating. So come on up!

[Verne Andru]

The internet generation is disconnected from most things not "virtual." That includes furniture and family heirlooms. Possessions include a "smart phone", a few cloths and living is in smaller and smaller spaces. I'm finding many kids don't even consider a car important anymore.

Some of the boomer "nostalgia" comes not from how well "vintage" gear was made but from how horrible the gear in the 60's and 70's was that forced many boomers to look back in time to find descent gear.

Add to that modern CNC and manufacturing techniques producing top quality instruments at a fraction of what things used to cost and the market has turned into a big meh.

[Teak]

NursingDaBlues

I think you perceive somewhat correctly but it may be more of a supply side problem, not demand side. In other words, there are -what?- something like 10,000 boomers retiring every day now and going onto fixed income. Those that got into instrument collecting have lots of instruments that they will eventually have to sell. Thus the supply side is probably growing whereas the demand side remains flat or even decreasing a bit.

If each guitarist or mandolinist owned only one instrument it would probably not be an issue, but who owns only one these days? I am by no means a collector but over the years I have "ended up" with three guitars, three mandolins, and one mandola. I currently have only 3 grand children so even if they each turn out to be musicians, they are going to get at least two of something and maybe even three. If not, then someone is going to have to sell my stash into a falling market.

Also, when I was younger I knew quite a few people who least played guitar. Now there is only one person in my group of friends and colleagues who plays music. Most people would rather listen to the pros then learn how to play music themselves.

[Charlie Bernstein]

The internet generation is disconnected from most things not "virtual." That includes furniture and family heirlooms. Possessions include a "smart phone", a few cloths and living is in smaller and smaller spaces. I'm finding many kids don't even consider a car important anymore. . . .

Aside from the smart phone and virtual whatever, this retiree is with them.

[Charlie Bernstein]

xx

[Charlie Bernstein]

. . . My 39 year-old son and his wife have made it clear that they really don’t want to inherit any of our “stuff,” including our instruments; instead they’d prefer to help us “downsize.” . . . .

They're right. So do it. Take your time about it, but do it. It sounds like you don't know how lucky you are have practical kids.

[Charlie Bernstein]

PS - None of the younger people in my family are musicians. So I've arranged for a thirty-something luthier and amp tech I know to sell my gear when I'm dead, take a 20% commission, and give 80% to my wife (or nearest survivor).

Which means I'll never have to worry about all this musical junk I've accumulated. A true load off!

[GDCB]

Young'in here, maybe I can give some insight from a area dense with up and coming musicians.
I've been fortunate to be able to live near some great shops and try out some of the "classic" instruments and very old vintage stuff.
It's unfortunately true, the 3-4000 dollar vintage gibson or D'Angelicos that don't seem to be moving in the shops just don't seem to be worth the price compared to a nice Eastman/Kentucky just based off play-ability.
Personally, I love the folksy sound of prewar F-4's(Not to mention they are stunning)

But nearly every picker I know(and myself) has purchased an Asian made mass produced model out of economic necessity. I don't think tastes are changing, just give it 30 or 40 years for us to age into disposable income :^)