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Thread: Article: Out of Stock - A Pandemic Supply and Demand Story

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    Administrator Mandolin Cafe's Avatar
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    Default Article: Out of Stock - A Pandemic Supply and Demand Story


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    Default Re: Article: Out of Stock - A Pandemic Supply and Demand Story

    Thanks - very nice read.

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    Moderator JEStanek's Avatar
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    Default Re: Article: Out of Stock - A Pandemic Supply and Demand Story

    This is hitting so many sectors of the economy. Instruments, bikes, rollerskates (really, not making that up), furniture (Ikea has backorders on cabinetry for months), and even real estate. I think the big thing with that last one (at least in my area of Philaburbia) you need to buy a place to live before you start to sell your current place. I'm sure much of this will level out once things get more normal. I do hope some of our changes, like remote work stay. I certainly have more time in my day without losing 2 hours driving.

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    It's good to see folks in the musical instrument business surviving this and as Jamie says, it has hit a lot of industries. A month ago I ordered parts for my table saw knowing that they wouldn't ship until mid-June. That may be more of the new normal.

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    Interesting article. Glad these shops survived

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    Mandolin Player trodgers's Avatar
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    Thanks for pulling all this together and sharing.

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    Ray Sanders
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    Interesting! I have experienced this first hand over the last couple of weeks. Once visiting a music store in Tennessee. They had inventory, but were having long lead times getting more. The other trying to buy an inexpensive CF fiddle online. The price was up, and some stores were out of stock. I'm just glad that gigs are starting back, and I have something to play!

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    Default Re: Article: Out of Stock - A Pandemic Supply and Demand Story

    Considering many sectors had moved to a just-in-time inventory system it's curious it took a year for this to manifest. Guess it speaks to the amount of inventory in the channel when the pandemic started if it was able to last a year. I might add this seems to be more an American issue as I've not seen it in Canada but I have been waiting on a couple of parts for a while now so it is global to a lesser extent.

    If we view societies along the lines of Maslow's Needs Hierarchy we see (top to bottom)

    - self-actualization
    - esteem
    - love and belonging needs (friendship)
    - safety (job security)
    - physiological (food and clothing)

    The pandemic which is causing this "problem" is a global health crisis that has taken the lives of hundreds of thousands of people, reshaped global supply lines and economies, put millions out of work, out of their homes and is generally the worst crisis in generations. In short, the pandemic appears to be ravaging many people's safety and psychological needs.

    Yet I would argue that perusing musical attachments would fit more in the upper end of this needs spectrum - i.e. esteem/self-actualization - so this seems an odd disconnect to me.

    Faced with overwhelming challenges to peoples health and security they're running out in droves to buy things they can't wear, eat or live in at a time when those things are under threat.

    This is almost like the emperor fiddling while Rome burned. Odd times indeed.
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    Default Re: Article: Out of Stock - A Pandemic Supply and Demand Story

    This didn't just happen. It's been this way for some time but inventory has been hammered long enough that the record sales some have mentioned have turned sharply. Real concern from retailers has been aired at least since early last Fall that inventory was dwindling with little end in sight. To give an idea of scope, this time one year ago The Music Emporium had 24 brand new Collings Mandolins in stock. I'd seen them have as many as 30 Collings Mandolins or more at times. Today, 7 new, couple used. Collings is a fraction of their size pre-pandemic so don't look for that to turn around. That TME information can be verified on the Wayback Machine. I've been wanting to do this article since early February and thought things would improve. They haven't. Some retailers like Denver Folklore mentioned they took a deeper dive into a few Asian manufacturers because they had the inventory, and Elderly went to the Ortega brand for mandolins and banjos which was kind of an eye opener (my opinion) because they needed inventory. There are others engaging in this as well. As one told me, "we can't make any money if we don't have products to sell." In spite of a decline in deaths and infections and increased vaccination rates, inventory rates won't reverse soon. And, without mentioning anyone, I had a couple of stores off the record say they didn't want to contribute to this article because they didn't want anyone to know they were struggling. Ouch.

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    Registered User Cheryl Watson's Avatar
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    Inflation, shortages, panic buying, and the list goes on and on because of this cursed pandemic. But keeping to the subject of the music stores and their struggles, I do hope they survive and eventually thrive again. This is an interesting article.

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    Noting the anniversary of this feature.

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    Noting the anniversary of this feature.

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