This would be a great travel mando. -Jim
"Small strokes fell mighty oaks"
A.A. Rymsza
Pierce Luthiery - pluthiery.tumblr.com
Best of Luck to everyone.
I think the real question now is wether this will reach 8000 registrants. It's slowed down significantly in the past few days. According to the U.S. National Weather Service, the odds of being struck by lightning within your lifetime are 1 in 5,000 (though I'm not sure about the validity of this statement as I didn't get it firsthand). It's a bit disconcerting that I have a better chance of being struck by lightning at some point in my life than I do of winning this mandolin.
I don't know where you got the 5000 number but these figures look a little more realistic. You have a better chance of winning the mandolin.
Last edited by Scott Tichenor; Mar-02-2015 at 9:39am. Reason: broken link removed
Ah, I thought 1/5000 seemed a bit too high; hence why I questioned it's validity. Still, this is getting closer and closer to that 1/10000 chance from the figures on that site.
Actually that is in the average lifetime. In a single given year it reports 1/1,000,000 So since they aren't giving away one a year (yet) your probability is much better than lightening striking. Not sure how that sounds on a mandolin but if it happens I hope it is recorded.
Kip...
Blessings,
Kip...
If you think you can or think you can't... you're likely right!
Eastman MD515, amid many guitars and a dulcimer.
I am irish descent, born friday the 13th and a hockey goaltender. superstitious? I think my odds of getting hit by lightning are greater tbh
May be so, but Barry... However!!... You're having pretty good luck with that OM's progress!
Kip...
Blessings,
Kip...
If you think you can or think you can't... you're likely right!
Eastman MD515, amid many guitars and a dulcimer.
I am surprised how dark the OM is turning out. I love the color of this lafferty. dam that thing is sexy. I can pray but not going to get my hopes up. they will draw and see Canada? toss that one out and let's draw another. Dam Canadians are too nice anyway so they won't mind... ya well not all Canadians have a pleasant disposition. I represent the jerks for my country quite well.
I need this instrument. I will never own a Mandolin this nice, even if my budget and playing ability allowed it . . . no way the wife would ever consent to $1800 for a "toy guitar." This is my one and only chance.
And the color is stunning. Love the dark finish . . . almost like a great cup of coffee.
Yes, they aren't giving one away every year, that is why you use the lifetime ratio for the lightning, because this is likely to be the only chance we'll have in our lifetime to win a Lafferty. I'm not comparing the likely-hood of winning a Lafferty this year with being struck by lightning this year; I'm comparing the likely-hood of winning a Lafferty in a lifetime, with that of being struck by lightning in a lifetime.
I would rather win the Lafferty.
Flatiron 2MW
Collings CJa
Martin D15
Tacoma EM9c
30's Washburn Parlor
Various electric guitars, basses and amps.
That in a lifetime. NWS puts it at 1 in 10,000. Still, that is in an 80 year lifetime. The chances of getting hit by lightning in any given year are over 1 in 700,000. The chances of winning the present powerball jackpot are 1 in over 175 million.
So take heart, this give away doesn't last a year.
And also, the chances of you winning something you want, in your life time, are pretty good, depending on how long you live and how many things you like.
No, this giveaway does not last a year, or my whole life, but it will likely be the only Lafferty given away during my lifetime (or at least that I'll be aware is being given away [correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think the Cafe has ever had the same giveaway model twice]). This means that you can treat your chances of winning this mandolin as the chance you'll win a Lafferty in your lifetime, because it is the only time within your lifetime that you have a chance to win it.
See now there it depends. Perhaps not a Lafferty, but there have been, and will be other mandolin giveaways. Or you might win a a new lawn tractor for a door prize ticket to a conty fair, that you could sell for a Lafferty. A friend of mine confined to a wheel chair won a Harley Davidson 1200 Custom, which, after a good long laugh, he flipped for good coin of the realm. He spent the money on two eye crossingly amazing guitars, and pocketed the change.
Ya never know.
But I get your point.
I hope you win, just to think of you dodging rain storms for the rest of your life.
Yay! Fun to be a part of this sort of thing. Looks like a fine instrument. I'd like to take it home but I won't begrudge some other fortunate person being blessed with a lovely new mando. Enjoy it, whoever you are!
Play on friend, play on...
Interesting quandary for those who are more pensive and wish to consider the lightening.
Would the fact that someone had been hit by lightening already and survived increase or decrease possibility of winning; or is the drawing and the incident of lightening strikes (as well as survival from same) totally decoupled. If indeed decoupled then... 'What are we talking about lightening for???'
Lets play! Course I hope I win but if I do not, I really hope is that whoever does gets lots of joy out of it!
Kip...
Blessings,
Kip...
If you think you can or think you can't... you're likely right!
Eastman MD515, amid many guitars and a dulcimer.
'09 Passernig A5
'82 Kentucky
'05 Deering Sierra
'81 Gold Star maple archtop
'79 Guild D-35SB
'98 Gibson J-100
Mid 1890's German fiddle
I can almost feel it in my hands!
Just visiting.
1923 Gibson A jr Paddlehead mandolin
Newish Muddy M-4 Mandolin
New Deering Goodtime Special open back 17 Fret Tenor Banjo
yup. I had certain music to listen to depending what rink and whether regular season or playoff, certain jerseys to wear, always put left pad on before the right etc etc. and I always had to take 1 shot to the head in warm up haha. those weenies that complain about that kill me.
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