Mandolin popularity: nadir or zenith?

[Jon Hall]

Where I live in East Texas there are a lot of mandolins and players. Ofthe seven people attending a jam last night, three of us brought mandolins and two others left theirs at home.

[neil argonaut]

Exact sales numbers would tell the tale

It would tell some of the tale, and give a likely indication of popularity, but not the whole tale as it wouldn't indicate how much those mandolins were getting used, how often folk were getting back into using an old mandolin they've had lying about for years, how many people want one but can't afford one etc. In a period where the mandolin is slightly decreasing in popularity but people have more free cash than usual sales could increase, whereas in a period where playing and listening to the mandolin are becoming more popular but things are very tight financially, sales might go down.

[John Flynn]

It would tell some of the tale, and give a likely indication of popularity, but not the whole tale as it wouldn't indicate how much those mandolins were getting used, how often folk were getting back into using an old mandolin they've had lying about for years, how many people want one but can't afford one etc. In a period where the mandolin is slightly decreasing in popularity but people have more free cash than usual sales could increase, whereas in a period where playing and listening to the mandolin are becoming more popular but things are very tight financially, sales might go down.

True. Another way to say it is that it would only measure just one dimension of popularity, namely, "how popular it is to buy a mandolin." However, those kinds of numbers do tend to go along with trends of the kind of popularity you are talking about, unless there are other factors at work in the economy. Two questions one always has to ask is: "What is your definition of (in this case) popularity?" and "How would you propose to measure that definition?"

As you point out, sales are only a one-dimensional measure, but the measure is easy (if you can get the data) and clear. The kind of multi-dimensional view you're talking about would definitely create a more holistic picture of popularity, but measuring it would be a major sociological research project, certainly beyond the scope of a Cafe' forum thread. I do think the answers to all the questions above, taken together, give a good indication of popularity. These kinds of things tend to be reliable in good times and in bad, even if they are not precise.

[Bernie Daniel]

I agree, and I think there are many factors at play, so I don't think the Google data should be looked at as anything more than one datapoint which could easily be an outlier.

Ok since you are willing to look at possible outlier data, I will show you my model for world mandolin sales.

I think you can see that mandolin popularity peaked in 2005, declined and now may be poised to make a modest come bacK.

The model is based on the number of mandolins in my house and extrapolated a bit from there using appropriate SWAGS. I am not responsible for any errors or financial losses that could occur using this assessment to adjust your portfolio.

[OldSausage]

That is a very compelling assessment, Bernie.

[Mandobart]

Mandolin popularity decreases directly with the number and length of hours I play in public establishments....Highly mathematical and complex relationship.

[Folkmusician.com]

The thing about mandolin is that it has been so obscure that it could triple in popularity (and it may have) and we still wouldn't notice.

The availability of lower cost instruments is absolutely driving popularity. As far as sales go, many of the popular brands have doubled production and still have trouble meeting demand. I should clarify my meaning of popular as best selling and not best brand recognition.

I truely believe that we will start to see a shift toward acoustic music. The sales statistics show it and it makes sense. To younger generations this type of music is the new thing. From what I hear, dealers are scrambling to change their stocking requirements and bring in more acoustic instruments. The last few years it has been difficult for dealers to get instruments. The factories were being conservative. Now most makers are starting to ramp up. They wouldn't do this if the demand was not there. The mandolin world is only a small portion, but it should go along for the ride. It is not just the imports (though I am sure they will remain the best sellers for the near future), there are changes amiss with the domestic brands as well. Watch Breedlove/Weber and though not mandolins, Deering. Deering is selling 2014 production now. We should see some of the results of all of this by summer.

[JeffD]

The thing about mandolin is that it has been so obscure that it could triple in popularity (and it may have) and we still wouldn't notice. .

That, unfortunately, is the truth of the matter.

[multidon]

Where I live is a hotbed of interest in Bluegrass which really surprised me because I just never thought of PA (let alone NW PA) as a Bluegrass mecca. But there are a string of festivals that are VERY well attended and dozens of local bands to play in them. Bluegrass is so much part of the culture up here that when I tell someone I play the mandolin they immediately ask if I play Bluegrass. No, I always sigh. But my point is, very few of those in the festival audiences PLAY. They just like to LISTEN to Bluegrass. And you can bet your bottom dollar every one of them knows what a mandolin is. So in any area where Bluegrass is active, the mandolin, since it is a vital, perhaps required, element of Bluegrass, it will have recognition. My closest Guitar Center is in Ohio, and I expressed to the manager over there that they really seem to be missing the boat. They displayed exactly one cheap mandolin and one cheap banjo, in an area with scads of Bluegrass interest. On the other hand, dozens and dozens of different ukuleles. Go figure.

Is it also possible, and I'm surprised no one brought this up, that Chris Thile has anything to do with increased mandolin interest? When he won that "genius grant" a while back, there was a lot of media coverage. Lots of people were saying "Who is he?" and "What the heck is that thing he plays?" But the story was on the mainstream media everywhere. It couldn't have hurt the mandolin's popularity.

I feel that acoustic music in general is on the upswing in general for sure, just judging by my group's audiences (we play Old Time, some Celtic, and an eclectic mix of other stuff that interests us). My opinion is that some people are reacting negatively to where electrically amplified and overly processed music has gone, and they long for the simpler and more pure sound acoustic instruments give us. I swear, if I hear one more pop singer using one of those pitch correction gadgets, I'll blow my top! They don't even sound like people singing. More like robots. (Sorry, one of my pet peeves.) Anyways, electric mandolins notwithstanding, acoustic mandolins can certainly ride this wave of acoustic music popularity we are now experiencing.

[Jim]

I actually kind of like the obscurity.

[John Flynn]

Agreed. Personally, I'm not sure I would want the instrument to be more popular than it is. I like the fact that it's a niche instrument and typically I am the only, or one of the few, mandolin players in ensembles I play with. As far as I'm concerned, the instrument community has enough recognition, availability and good pricing of instruments, availability of instructional materials and one of the best websites going. We have great players to look up to with great recordings in a lot of genres, but without much junk. It is much, much better than it was when I started 20 years ago and even 10 years ago. But I would never want the popularity to get to guitar levels. If it did, I'd probably give it up and find something else to play. There are great things happening with guitars, but I see the whole guitar scene as a mess.

[Bernie Daniel]

...My closest Guitar Center is in Ohio, and I expressed to the manager over there that they really seem to be missing the boat. They displayed exactly one cheap mandolin and one cheap banjo, in an area with scads of Bluegrass interest. On the other hand, dozens and dozens of different ukuleles. Go figure.....

Is that the Columbus branch? Too bad because the Cincinnati GC has at least (last time I was in) 6 or 7 vintage mandolins including 4 Gibsons (1990's F-5G; 1916 F-2, 1950 F-12, & 1960's A-50)-- and I'd say 15 Pac-Rim models Kentucky, Washburn, Fender and others

[Christine Robins]

I'm surprised that nobody has posted data on the number of members of Mando Cafe over time, or the number of posts. That would give some indication of trends in the number of mando enthusiasts. Or at least the ones like myself who hang out here when they ought to be practicing!

[Folkmusician.com]

I'm surprised that nobody has posted data on the number of members on Mando Cafe over time, or the number of posts. That would at least give some indication of the number of mando enthusiasts. Or at least the ones like myself who hang out here when they ought to be practicing!

Good call! You are absolutely right. We may have to factor in the growing popularity of the internet, but it should still be a good measure.

[multidon]

Bernie-It is suburban Cleveland. I am jealous of Cinncinnati. Sounds like a nice selection. I bet Columbus is pretty good too. Alas both too far away from me for a day trip.

[JH Murray]

Maybe this is a topic for some intrepid internet journalist to consider- what is the state of acoustic music today? What is selling? What has changed and what are the trends for acoustic guitars, fiddles, banjos, mandolin, and yes even the ukulele? What is driving these changes? I smell a great story that many websites might be interested in. Any takers?

[OldSausage]

Their problem is the same as ours: where to get their data from.

[Folkmusician.com]

There is a lot of data out there for imports. Not so much for tracking domestic products. The problem with all of the data is that many things are bundled together. It is easy to find Electric Guitar, Acoustic Guitar, Bowed, Keyboards, etc...

[jackmalonis]

I can't speak for the rest of the world, but bluegrass instrumentation (especially the banjo) is getting pretty popular here in Austin.

People who would have never associated with the genre are going out and buying mandolins and/or banjos.

[David Smith]

Over the 20+ years I have been teaching in private secondary schools, I have seen a dramatic drop in the number of students playing instruments outside those who participate in string and large woodwind ensembles. Many of our Asian students bring a tradition of playing violin, viola and cello, while our domestic students have learned woodwind instruments. However, of the 400+ students currently enrolled here, I can count on one hand those who play guitar, banjo, and mandolin combined (actually there are no mandolin players and just one banjo player). Those who do play guitar have not mastered fundamental chords. They listen to a lot of music yet do not have interest in learning how to play. While this may be raw speculation, I think this dearth of players has to do with the prevalence of instant gratification....I want to play expertly RIGHT NOW! What do you mean I have to practice? Or else they realize it will take a lot of work and simply walk away choosing to be spectators rather than participants. I can't count the number of times a student has said, "I just don't have the time to learn how to play", and yet will spend untold hours shooting zombies on Call of Duty. While there are few incredibly talented young players out there, it seems there are fewer young people simply picking up instruments and learning how to play because it is fun.

[AlanN]

In the general populace, I don't know. But in the world of jams/festivals, seems to be at a zenith, with loads of mandolins at the weekly jams and campsites and nary a festival band not having a mandolin picker, which wasn't the case 2-3 decades ago (Ralph Stanley hardly ever used one, Sparks rarely had one). Now, if a band has no mandolin picker, something is missing.

[Shelagh Moore]

Well... I have three, my daughter plays the mandola, my partner plays the mandolin and her daughter has recently taken it up as well. Plus I've had several local students. Plus our local sessions and folk clubs have a reasonable sprinkling of mandolins. So I feel it's doing at least reasonably well although still far behind the guitar.

[catmandu2]

Over the 20+ years I have been teaching in private secondary schools, I have seen a dramatic drop in the number of students playing instruments outside those who participate in string and large woodwind ensembles. Many of our Asian students bring a tradition of playing violin, viola and cello, while our domestic students have learned woodwind instruments. However, of the 400+ students currently enrolled here, I can count on one hand those who play guitar, banjo, and mandolin combined (actually there are no mandolin players and just one banjo player). Those who do play guitar have not mastered fundamental chords. They listen to a lot of music yet do not have interest in learning how to play. While this may be raw speculation, I think this dearth of players has to do with the prevalence of instant gratification....

Consumption trends involve many factors--in this case, beyond merely musical aspects: fashion is a biggie, obviously, in this age cohort, and the electric guitar is the ultimate fashion accessory. There are many models of pedagogy which could be implemented in public curricula. Effecting change in public ed policy is the heart of the matter.

Our society is anything but integrated: WRT music, we have didacticism in school--after which our kids pack up their orchestral and band instruments into the closet. And we have pop music--which is predicated on style and consumption. There are many ways this could change--but trends aren't moving in this direction

The fortunate kids are those raised in families who can steer them away from the temptations of mass culture and help them understand subjects (and aspects of life) which are neither taught in school nor particularly valued (beyond commodity) in our society. The key is facilitating relevance--especially in this cohort. Kids are smart--helping them understand systems is healthy, rather than indoctrinating them into increasingly irrational and disintegrating lifestyle patterns

[Pasha Alden]

Google data alone cannot account for measuring mandolin popularity. So many variables at work here! However, if I were to judge the situation here in Sa, though certainly not to be described as popular, I believe there is some liking for the mandolin. Though the stock carried is rather limited, the fact that many music shops especially in Cape Town at least stock Court, Ibanez and Savannah suggests that there are musicians, even at basic level taking to the mandolin in SA! It would be interesting to try and ascertain who continues and carries on from learners' level, starts to play live and upgrades their model of mandolin here in SA. Perhaps music shops would be able to tell!



Happy playing all!

[stevedenver]

Like die hard blues players, and National guitars, perhaps there is an analogy?

Bluegrass is a niche, and mando is integral there, along with whatever peripheral roots music that plays into other genres.

But, on the point of certain pop/rock (in the broadest sense of the term) music recently using mando, I remember when harpsichord made a comeback too in the 60s. I think in the bigger spectrum of pop /mass media music and the popularity of mando for coloring that music and making it 'new' we are in a trend.

Other than around here, imho, few are talking mando, for the most part

it seems, in part, to be as much a secondary instrument for guitarists and fiddlers as anything else, and may or may not affect things.

As much as I love the instrument, fwiw, I think its a strange instrument in terms of sustain and range, and not terribly well suited to vocals, and I think , often for popular instruments, this is a big deal. 'Course banjos don't seem to be on the decline ...damn....